The highly anticipated action-thriller “Baaghi 4” has officially kicked off its theatrical journey, with advance bookings opening across India today. As the film barrels toward its theatrical release on September 5, 2025, trade analysts are already busy predicting its box office fate, with many setting a promising, though cautious, target for the film’s opening day.
The film, directed by A. Harsha and produced by Sajid Nadiadwala under the banner of Nadiadwala Grandsons Entertainment, promises to deliver the franchise’s signature high-octane action, this time with a darker and more intense narrative.
Baaghi 4 First-Day Prediction: A Strong Opening, But Not a Record-Breaker
Early predictions from industry insiders and trade analysts suggest that “Baaghi 4” is poised for a robust opening at the box office. Our analysis indicates the film is expected to collect in the range of ₹10-12 crore on its opening day. This figure is a solid start for a post-pandemic release and a clear indication of Tiger Shroff’s enduring star power in the action genre. The film is also set to benefit from its release on a partial holiday, Eid-e-Milad, which typically boosts footfall in mass centres.
However, a closer look at the franchise’s history reveals that while a ₹10-12 crore opening is impressive, it will not surpass the previous records set by the franchise’s earlier installments.
The Baaghi Franchise: A History of Box Office Blockbusters
To understand the scale of “Baaghi 4’s” predicted performance, it’s essential to compare it to its predecessors:
- Baaghi 2 (2018): This installment holds the record for the franchise’s biggest opening. It collected ₹25.10 crore on its first day.
- Baaghi 3 (2020): Released just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down theaters, Baaghi 3 had a formidable opening of ₹17-18 crore. This made it one of the highest openers of 2020 before its theatrical run was abruptly cut short.
With this context, a predicted opening of ₹10-12 crore for Baaghi 4 places it as a strong contender in the post-pandemic box office landscape but not as the franchise’s biggest opener. Despite this, the film is expected to easily surpass the opening of Tiger Shroff’s 2022 film Heropanti 2 (₹7 crore) and could aim for his second-biggest opening after Bade Miyan Chote Miyan (₹16.07 crore).
The Star-Studded Cast and Story That Aims to Connect
Beyond the numbers, “Baaghi 4” promises to be an engaging action-thriller with a powerful cast. The film stars Tiger Shroff in his iconic role as Ronnie, a character that has become synonymous with the franchise. Joining him is veteran actor Sanjay Dutt, who is set to play the antagonist, setting up a high-stakes clash between the two stars. The film also features a fresh pairing with Harnaaz Sandhu, making her Hindi film debut, and the popular Sonam Bajwa.
Directed by Kannada filmmaker A. Harsha in his Hindi debut, the film is expected to introduce a new visual style and intensity to the franchise. The trailer has already hinted at a darker, more blood-soaked narrative, promising to appeal to action-loving audiences.
Word of Mouth: The Ultimate Game Changer
Although advance bookings highlight the film’s strong opening appeal, the true measure of ‘Baaghi 4’s success will lie in how audiences respond. As with any film in a major franchise, positive word of mouth on the first day can significantly boost collections over the opening weekend. Given the film’s strategic release date and its appeal to the masses, a positive reception could push its numbers well beyond the initial predictions, securing its place as a major commercial success.
